Energy and climate policy experts suggest that Nigeria could achieve a more effective energy transition by adopting a realistic, data-driven, and economically sustainable approach, as current plans for decarbonising the oil and gas sector may face significant challenges.
The President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, made the call at a stakeholders’ workshop convened to present findings from a comprehensive study examining the economic, social and environmental implications of decarbonising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
Okereke explained that although Nigeria has consistently identified natural gas as a transition fuel under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP), there has been limited scientific evaluation of how different gas utilisation pathways could affect employment, economic growth, emissions reduction and long-term development outcomes.
He said the new report evaluates multiple decarbonisation scenarios and assesses how Nigeria can cut carbon emissions while protecting jobs, supporting industrial growth and maintaining energy security.
According to him, “Policy declarations alone are inadequate without strong scientific evidence to guide implementation. The workshop aims to bridge the gap between policy ambition and practical feasibility.
“Our analysis shows that simply stating that gas will serve as a transition fuel does not explain how this will be achieved or the economic consequences of alternative approaches.”
Okereke noted that projections in the current Energy Transition Plan including achieving about 85 per cent electric vehicle adoption and generating up to 150 gigawatts of solar electricity by 2060 may not align with Nigeria’s present technological capacity, infrastructure realities and investment climate.
He stressed the need for what experts describe as a “balanced transition scenario”, which would allow gradual decarbonisation while leveraging Nigeria’s natural resources without locking the country into long-term gas dependence.
The professor also advocated increased deployment of solar mini-grids rather than large-scale utility solar projects, explaining that decentralised energy systems offer faster and more practical electricity access for rural and underserved communities.
He added that the study proposes alternative pathways for deploying savings from fuel subsidy removal, emphasising that subsidy reforms should translate into developmental investments capable of driving green growth and economic diversification.
Also speaking, Senior Research Fellow at ODI Global, Dr Timothy Kelsall, said researchers are examining various subsidy reallocation and energy transition scenarios to determine how Nigeria can simultaneously promote economic expansion, create jobs and reduce carbon emissions.
Kelsall noted that beyond technical modelling, the research incorporates political economy analysis to understand how energy transition policies may create both beneficiaries and opposition within the economy and governance system.
He explained that successful reforms must take into account institutional realities, vested interests and socio-political dynamics that often influence policy implementation.
While acknowledging Nigeria’s status as a major oil-producing nation, Kelsall said the domestic economy is gradually becoming less dependent on oil, although government revenue and exports still rely heavily on the sector.
He said, “Transitioning away from oil will require careful planning, inclusive stakeholder engagement and difficult policy decisions that balance economic stability with environmental sustainability.
“Achieving meaningful energy transition outcomes will depend on coordinated action among political leaders, private sector actors and civil society organisations working collectively to build consensus and implement reforms.”
In an overview presentation, Mr Uche Nnamani, a researcher at SPP, said the workshop was convened to critically analyse the economic implications of Nigeria’s energy transition.
He said, “The session highlighted the importance of adopting a data-driven and inclusive approach to ensure that the transition supports sustainable economic development while minimising potential disruptions to key sectors of the economy.”
Nnamani added that discussions were structured around clearly defined objectives aligned with Nigeria’s broader energy transition goals, including promoting renewable energy adoption, enhancing energy security, reducing carbon emissions and fostering economic diversification.
He said the aim was to provide actionable insights to guide policymakers, stakeholders and investors towards building a resilient, low-carbon and economically viable energy future for Nigeria.
The experts maintained that evidence-based policymaking remains critical to ensuring that Nigeria’s green transition supports national development priorities, strengthens energy access and positions the country for a sustainable low-carbon future.
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