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Beyond Forecasts: Building Nigeria’s Heat-Health Communication System

In recent years, Nigeria has been feeling the impact of climate change in more visible and severe ways, and one of the most pressing challenges is extreme heat. Temperatures across the country are rising faster than ever, with prolonged periods of heat pushing both people and infrastructure to their limits. Heatwaves and high-temperature days are no longer rare events, and they carry significant risks for people’s health especially for vulnerable groups like the elderly, children, pregnant women, and outdoor workers. 

Extreme heat kills more people globally than any other weather hazard, yet it remains one of Nigeria’s most underestimated public health threats. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) already provides heat advisories and forecasts, while health agencies such as the Federal Ministry of Health, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), and state or local health authorities also share related public health messages. On paper, this looks like a functional system, one where science informs policy and policy informs the public. But in practice, things are not working well, and lives are being lost as a result.

When Abuja’s temperature hit 39°C earlier this year, the city seemed to melt into silence. Pedestrians slowed down, children huddled under kiosks for shade, and even the evening air felt heavy. Yet amid the sweltering heat, there was little to no public guidance, no clear warning about what was coming or how to cope. This silence reflects a dangerous communication gap in Nigeria’s climate response: we are forecasting the heat but not communicating it effectively.

While NiMet provides forecasts and health agencies issue advisories, there is no clearly defined chain of responsibility that determines who triggers what once an alert is released. The result is confusion; forecasts remain in reports or social media posts without being translated into clear, actionable steps for communities. This lack of coordination is not bureaucratic inconvenience; it is a public health threat. Without a structured response system, hospitals remain unprepared for heat-related illnesses, schools carry on normal schedules in unsafe conditions, and communities are left without practical guidance.

Countries like India and the United Kingdom show that it can be done differently. In India’s Ahmedabad city, once a heat alert is declared, every sector from hospitals and schools to radio stations knows exactly what to do. In the United Kingdom, the Met Office’s color-coded heat-health alerts automatically trigger actions across institutions: care homes activate cooling plans, hospitals prepare for heat-related admissions, and the public receives simple, actionable instructions. Nigeria needs the same sense of urgency and organization.

Another challenge is how heat warnings are written and delivered. Many NiMet advisories are technically sound but difficult for the average Nigerian to understand. Phrases like “heat stress index” and “temperature values remain high” sound scientific but offer little guidance. A warning that cannot be acted upon is as dangerous as no warning at all.

Nigeria must therefore adopt a plain-language approach to all heat advisories; one that tells people exactly what to do, when to do it, and why. Instead of vague phrases like “take precautions,” advisories should clearly say, “Drink water every hour, even if you’re not thirsty,” or “Avoid strenuous outdoor work between noon and 3 p.m.” These messages must be translated into Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and Pidgin, and tailored for vulnerable groups such as outdoor workers, students, and the elderly. Communication should not only inform but instruct – clearly, simply, and immediately.

The communication gap is also structural. Nigeria’s system relies heavily on national media and online platforms, which fail to reach rural communities and informal settlements; the areas most exposed to heat. Many outdoor workers have little internet access or awareness of official advisories. When temperatures soar, they are left to cope alone.

To fix this, messages must reach people through the channels they trust. Community radio, religious institutions, traditional rulers, and market associations are powerful platforms for local communication. In India, for example, community radio stations broadcast daily heat-safety tips, while volunteers share leaflets in local languages. Nigeria can replicate this easily. Ministries of Health and SEMAs can partner with radio stations and local health officers to deliver short, repeated, relatable messages. Churches and mosques can share heat-safety reminders during announcements. Posters and jingles can spread awareness faster than a press release ever will.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that every country develop a comprehensive Heat–Health Action Plan that links forecasting, early warning, healthcare response, and public communication. Nigeria currently has no such plan, leaving agencies to act in isolation and communities unprotected. Developing a national framework is an urgent necessity. Such a plan could be anchored by a “Heat Action Chain”, a simple, one-page guide mapping who does what within 24 to 48 hours of a NiMet alert. Once a warning is issued, the Federal Ministry of Health should immediately notify state and local health departments, which in turn activate primary health centers and community broadcasters. Messages would begin circulating within hours, not days. The faster people hear, the faster they act.

As climate change intensifies, the heat will continue to rise; but the silence around it must not. Forecasting alone will not save lives; communication will. Every uncommunicated alert is a missed opportunity to protect Nigerians from preventable harm.

The next time NiMet issues a heat advisory, it must not end as a headline or a tweet. It should reach the people who sell under the sun, walk to work, or sleep without power. It should come in a language they understand, through voices they trust, with actions they can take. The heat is already here. What remains to be seen is whether our response will catch up or whether Nigeria will continue to be caught unprepared in the rising silence of the sun.


By Kamdi Chike-Nwaka

Society for Planet and Prosperity

SPP TRAINS SUBNATIONAL CLIMATE DESK OFFICERS ON GHG INVENTORY

The Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP) and the Department of Climate Change (DCC) of the Federal Ministry of Environment have trained climate change Desk Officers from the 36 states of the federation on Greenhouse Gas Inventory Compilation and Emission Reporting. The training followed the release of the 2025 Subnational Climate Governance Performance Rating and Ranking and is designed to strengthen technical capacity, improve data quality and reporting standards, and deepen federal–state collaboration on emissions accounting and reporting.

In her opening remarks, the Director of DCC, Dr Iniobong Abiola-Awe, reminded the Desk Officers of the importance of prioritizing the fight against climate change at the subnational level and maintaining accurate data collection methods.

Dr. Abiola-Awe emphasized the need to foster inter-agency collaboration and align budgets with national and state priorities. She encouraged participants to collaborate, share experiences, and commit to practical actions to strengthen national climate capabilities and contribute to regional and international commitments.

“As you embark on this journey of capacity building, I encourage the spirit of collaboration and openness, share experiences respectfully, and commit to practical and result-oriented action,” she said.

The training, which was facilitated by SPP’s Executive Director, Mr. Edwin Oghenemere Orugbo, covered the IPCC framework, emission accounting principles, and the process of data collection and estimation.

Participants were encouraged to engage in practical sessions and interactive discussions to gain more in-depth knowledge of the topic.

In his presentation, Mr Orugbo emphasized the importance of climate action and the basics for attracting climate finance. He also discussed the gases of concern, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, and the need to consider all greenhouse gases when compiling inventories at the state level.

According to Mr Orugbo, the IPCC greenhouse gas inventory framework and emission accounting principles consider four main source categories: energy, industrial processes, agriculture/forestry, and waste, along with the core principles of transparency, accuracy, consistency, and comparability. He detailed the process of data collection and emission factor calculations, including a basic calculation formula for determining greenhouse gas emissions.

Mr Orugbo stressed the need to capture metadata for each dataset and use reliable sources for emission factors, such as the UNFCCC and IPCC websites. The discussion highlighted the role of subnational inventories in enabling data-driven climate policies and the importance of collaboration for sustainability and transparency.

The participants shared their opinions on the necessary institutional arrangements, including legal frameworks, data sharing protocols, and partnerships between state MDAs. They outlined technical requirements, including data management systems, estimation tools, and field monitoring equipment, as well as the need for a dedicated Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification coordinator and sector-specific data officers. They also highlighted the importance of proper quality assurance/quality control procedures and metadata management, while addressing capacity building needs for training on IPCC methodologies and data collection procedures as some of their immediate needs to ensure that they can develop and manage GHG emission inventory at the subnational level.

Responding to their queries on behalf of DCC, Dolapo John, Principal Scientific Officer at DCC, promised the department’s readiness in supporting the states with the capacity needs, using the IPCC software.

The greenhouse gas inventory compilation and emission reporting session is one of a series of capacity-building trainings organized by the Society for Planet and Prosperity to equip subnational Desk Officers with the right knowledge to ensure climate resilience is sustained at the subnational level. This session was moderated by Mr Timothy Ogenyi, Senior Policy Analyst (Climate Change), SPP.

Next in the series of SPP’s intervention on capacity building for the subnational are trainings on “Designing Effective Monitoring & Evaluation Systems for State Climate Action” and “Climate Finance.” SPP is committed to this laudable initiative with support from the European Climate Foundation (ECF).

 

– Ugochukwu Uzuegbu

Communication officer, SPP

– Elochukwu Anieze

Senior Policy Analyst, SPP

Katsina State Ranks Second in Nigeria’s Climate Governance Performance Rating and Ranking (2025)

Katsina State has been ranked second in the 2025 Subnational Climate Governance Performance Rating and Ranking — an independent, research-based assessment developed by Professor Chukwumerije Okereke and the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP). This marks one of the most significant recognitions of subnational climate leadership in Nigeria. Katsina’s leap of 23 places from the previous year demonstrates tangible improvements in governance capacity and policy innovation directly informed by this evidence-based evaluation framework.

The rating, launched in Abuja on October 14, 2025, by the Federal Ministry of Environment in partnership with SPP, the UK FCDO’s Partnership for Agile Governance and Climate Engagement (PACE), the African Climate Foundation, and others, assesses all 36 states across five governance pillars: institutional structures, policy frameworks, budgeting, implementation and monitoring, and public engagement.

Professor Mohammed Al-Amin, Special Adviser to the Governor on Climate Change, noted:

““This recognition heartens us. Coming in second among all Nigerian states is a clear signal that Katsina’s Green Growth Agenda is yielding results. Our administration is deeply committed to climate governance, not only in policy formulation, but also in practical implementation and transparency. We want climate action to translate into real, visible improvements in the lives of our people.”

Contuining, he says:

The recognition validates our reforms and the technical guidance we’ve drawn from the Climate Governance Performance framework. It shows that evidence-based research can translate directly into institutional and policy change at state level.”

Professor Al-Amin highlighted the key areas of progress that contributed to the state’s strong performance and how these actions were premised on the rating and ranking methodology published by SPP in collaboration with the Federal government earlier in 2024:

Key Research-Informed Impacts

  • Institutional Strengthening: Guided by the performance indicators developed through the national Climate Governance Ranking research, Katsina established climate governance desks across ministries and created formal coordination mechanisms with local governments.
  • Policy Uptake: The 2024 Katsina State Climate Resilience and Green Economy Policy was designed to align with performance benchmarks highlighted in the Rating methodology, showing direct research-to-policy translation. One of the landmark policy innovations inspired by the ranking was the passage and implementation of the Katsina State Climate Resilience and Green Economy Policy (2024).
  • Budgetary Reform: Noting the high marks allocated to climate finance, we pushed very hard to drive climate-related funding which subsequently rose by 30% in 2025 — a measurable outcome linked to the project’s budgeting criteria and follow-up capacity-building workshops led by the research team.
  • Implementation and Public Accountability: The launch of Katsina Climate Watch, a digital transparency platform, mirrors the project’s call for improved visibility and citizen engagement in climate projects.

 

Governor Dikko Umaru Radda praised the result describing it as:

“A testament to our administration’s proactive approach to governance, innovation, and environmental responsibility.”

He said this was a perfect example of “how collaborative research and data-driven policy can drive real transformation in governance and public service delivery.”

The Federal Minister of Environment, Hon. Balarabe Abbas, commended the top-performing states, urging others to adopt the Ranking framework as a “map for reform and learning.”

Katsina’s achievement demonstrates how rigorous academic research can have direct and verifiable impacts on public policy, institutional design, and environmental outcomes. The state’s adoption of evidence-based recommendations from the Subnational Climate Governance Performance Ranking illustrates a model of research-informed decision-making now influencing both federal-state collaboration and peer learning among subnational governments.

Breaking: Lagos Tops, as 2025 Subnational Climate Governance Ranking Released

For the second year in a row, Lagos State has topped the table in the annual Subnational Climate Governance Performance Rating and Ranking exercise. This was announced on Tuesday 14 October, 2025, during the launch of the second edition of the report, in Abuja.

Speaking during the unveiling of the top performing States, the Minister of Environment, Malam Balarabe Abbas Lawal said Lagos polled a total of 315 points to come first. Katsina, with 310 points, and Kaduna, with 305 points came second and third respectively.

An initiative of the Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, in collaboration with the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), the Subnational Climate Governance Rating and Ranking project seeks to motivate subnational climate action by measuring the extent of State’s actions using five thematic areas viz: States’ Climate Institutional Arrangements; Status of Climate Policies, Action Plans, and legal frameworks at the State Level; Budgetary Allocation to Climate Change Projects; Climate Project Implementation and Monitoring; and Online Visibility and Publicity on Climate Change Issues at the State-level.

Explaining the rationale behind this, the President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke stated that the five thematic areas represent critical pillars of climate action. Therefore, an interrogation of States’ efforts along those lines will spur action and provide guidance on the path States must toe.

In her speech, the Director General of the National Council on Climate Change, Barrister Tenioye Majekodunmi described the ranking as a critical milestone in Nigeria’s journey towards a robust grassroot driven climate action.

“This second ranking stands as a testament to the growing political will and commitment demonstrated by our state governments. The National Council on Climate Change as the apex regulatory body, is committed to translating the highest national ambition into local realities, and your performance is central to that mission,” she said.

This was further echoed by the First Secretary for Climate Diplomacy, UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), Samantha Harrison during her goodwill message.

“We know that subnational actors are the heartbeat of climate action. Without them, our policies remain spreadsheets on paper. Effective climate governance at the subnational level is not just beneficial, it is essential,” she said.

This year’s edition saw Kano and Enugu States breaking into the top five by making tremendous improvements from their outing last year.

Initiated in 2024, the rating and ranking project has helped create healthy competition and collaborative actions amongst States in Nigeria. Reflections from States and other stakeholders reveal that the initiative has been very impactful. Accordingly, Dr. Dahiru Muhammad Hashim, Honourable Commissioner, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Kano State affirms that: “Kano welcomes this platform as an opportunity to showcase progress, foster collaboration, and inspire greater ambition. The Ranking strengthens healthy competition, promotes knowledge exchange, and reinforces the urgency of addressing the climate crisis at the subnational level, where the impacts are most immediate and the solutions most impactful.”

Mr Tokunbo Wahab, Hon. Commissioner, Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources, Lagos State is of the opinion that: “For Lagos, the ranking boosts our commitment to building resilience, driving green growth, and embedding climate action into every part of our economy. We value this initiative not only for the healthy competition it encourages among states but also for the opportunities it creates for collaboration and shared progress. Lagos State remains determined to lead by example, making sure that our climate actions deliver sustainable development and a better quality of life for our people.”

Donor agencies have also seen the initiative as an important measuring board which helps provide guidance on what form of intervention States need to boost climate action. Professor Anthony Nyong, Director of Climate Change and Green Growth at the African Development Bank sees the exercise as an “innovative approach to strengthening subnational climate  governance in Nigeria, fostering accountability, and catalysing green growth and climate- resilient development across the continent. It provides a valuable model for evidence-based policymaking  and investment alignment to accelerate Africa’s just climate transition.”

Nigeria’s subnational remain the frontliners in the country’s efforts at addressing climate change. They are therefore critical for any meaningful impact to be made. The rating and ranking project seeks to inspire greater action.

Africa Climate Summit 2: Strengthening Alliance and creating a clear path for development ahead of COP30

The recently concluded Africa Climate Summit 2 (ACS2) in Addis Ababa took place under the theme “Accelerating Global Climate Solutions: Financing for Africa’s Resilient and Green Development” and had leaders, policymakers, scientists, youth, and civil society focused on key tracks: nature-based solutions, renewable energy and resilient infrastructure, climate finance, governance, energy transition, and green industrialization. What did this summit translate into in terms of Africa’s position in the run-up to COP30 on climate?

From Nairobi to Addis: What has changed?

Following the first Africa Climate Summit (ACS1), which took place in Kenya in 2023, the Nairobi Declaration set out a focus on green growth, and the imperative to reconcile climate action with industrial development. ACS1 is often described as a crucial moment and a narrative shift, identifying opportunities for Africa in the green economy. Governments, international development institutions, philanthropies and investors pledged a total of USD23 billion at the time. While ACS2 sought to build momentum from Nairobi 2023 by turning narratives into action, positioning Africa from the angle of a solutions provider and not the usual victim tags, there was also a growing momentum for consensus around the urgency of scaling investment, climate justice, and developing innovation ecosystems across the continent.

Compared to Nairobi, ACS2 pledges appeared scantier. One could argue that the lack of information on the performance of the 2023 pledges for climate finance for Africa has led to the seemingly silence in Addis. In addition, as COP30 has been dubbed the “implementation COP”, ACS2 was conceived as Africa’s contribution to this issue.

However, among the most ambitious announcements at ACS2 are: the establishment of an Africa Climate Innovation Compact to deliver 1,000 African-led climate solutions by 2030; the establishment of the African Climate Facility to mobilize USD50 billion annually in catalytic finance; and a USD100 billion pledge from African financial institutions for the Africa Green Industrialization Initiative (AGII) to finance green energy and climate-resilient infrastructure in order to drive a green industrial revolution on the continent. These pan-African announcements and pledges are laudable, but come with challenges of implementation and tracking progress, ensuring availability of funds, addressing bureaucratic delays and governance bottlenecks, as well as the longstanding debt burdens, and ensuring that projects reach local communities and subnational actors.

The political level of representation by heads of government was lower in Addis compared to the high-level attendance at ACS1. And the declaration process was led with no significant input from stakeholders with a rushed ministerial consultations before adoption. Subsequent summits should represent and embody a regional aspiration and ambition and not be the hosting country’s platform to drive national ambition.

Preparing COP30 positions and forging partnerships

However, a notable diversity of stakeholders (including regional economic commissions, financial institutions, youth organisations, gender activists, indigenous groups, academics, and private investors) shaped ACS2 and its outcome. Equally instrumental were pre-events such as the African Climate Week and the 13th Conference on Climate Change and Development in Africa CCDA-XIII, which helped integrate science, justice, data, and just transitions into the discussions ahead of the summit thus paving the path for COP30 positions.

In 2023, the Nairobi Declaration set the tone for a joint position at COP28 by calling for reform of international financial architecture, carbon tax regimes, enhanced climate finance and equity, repositioning Africa as a partner, not only an aid-receiver. The Addis Ababa Declaration builds on the Nairobi Declaration but with a shift from aid to execution. Scaling up investments in green industrialization, climate justice, and developing innovation ecosystems across the continent are among the issues that gained traction shaping Africa’s common position ahead of COP30. To realize these ambitions in economies that face fiscal constraints and high capital costs, Africa must unequivocally demand grant-based, concessional finance and not merely loans, and should push for investment mechanisms that unlock private capital. And it should ensure that financing is anchored on effective monitoring and evaluation including regulation and accountability. Africa’s climate priorities are: energy access, renewable capacity, green industry, food systems resilience and nature-based solutions.

Ahead of COP30, Africa must also: present a unified negotiating text reflecting Addis Ababa commitments towards the Climate Finance Facility, Innovation Compact, 300 GW renewable target, energy access for millions; expand its EU collaboration leveraging its promise not to give up on responsibilities; amplify the push for the reform of global finance systems: attract more grants, less conditionality, more concessional finance. With the ongoing implementation of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), it is time to urgently integrate Africa into the global value chains and enabling trade environment to advance robust green industrialization.

Deepening collaboration around green innovation and industrialization could also be one of the objectives for delegates heading from COP30 to the AU-EU Summit that will take place at the end of November in Luanda, Angola. Both Africa and the EU could benefit from such mutually beneficial green industrial partnerships (IDDRI, 2024).

Looking inward, Africa must urgently scale up domestic capacities: in the creation of green job, skills, policies, institutions; while ensuring that the subnational actors are not sidelined—they must own implementation, especially in delivery of investment, energy transition, food resilience to make COP30 a true “implementation COP”.

By Gboyega Olorunfemi, Senior Policy Analysts, Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP).